Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions by Jim Reed and Derek Bonesteel

Jim and Derek decided to predict the Oscar winners this year. Jim used the tried and true method of seeing all the films, thinking about them, considering each of them in light of one another, and then making predictions.  Derek, on the other hand, went the opposite route.  He literally didn't see any of the films that are nominated for Best Picture, and will be predicting solely on his vast knowledge of how ridiculous the entire process for choosing these awards is.  Each of them will have some brief commentary on each category, and then make a bold (or not so bold) prediction.

Opening Commentary

Jim: The Oscars are great for a number of reasons. 1) The Oscars are fairly exclusive, which is nice. They aren’t like the Grammys or the Emmys where awards are frivolously thrown around for every category imaginable. There are only 24 categories at the Oscars. 2) They are almost completely subjective, so anyone’s informed opinion matters. I say informedbecause opinions based on nothing are lame. 3) This subjectivity creates great conversation! I love conversation based in the particulars of culture, and film acutely deals with the particulars of culture.

The Oscars also tick me off because they’re almost always wrong! Anyone remember whenShakespeare in Love took down Saving Private Ryan in 1998? Or when stupid suck How Green Was My Valley beat Citizen Kane in 1941? Or when Ordinary People knocked outRaging Bull in 1980? Yeah, me too. It happens almost every year. But I think this year could be different… which is why Derek and I will give you this year’s major award winners so you can impress people wherever you need to seem impressive. 

Derek: I wanted to see all of the nominees for Best Picture this year (except for Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild, because I don't even know what those 2 film are, so they have no chance of winning) but I have three children and a job with some very strange hours, so going to a movie theater is something that rarely happens in my life. However, that doesn't matter, because predicting the Oscars has very little to do with actually seeing the films, because these things are relatively easy to call. So, I will be picking the winners "blind", and we will see if I can best the amazing Jim Reed, who actually studied film by choice. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Chris Terrio—ARGO 
Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin—BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
David Magee—LIFE OF PI
Tony Kushner—LINCOLN
David O. Russell—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Jim: I actually have no idea who is going to win this award. Either Argo stays hot, Tony Kushner gets his much deserved credit, or David O. Russell is thrown a bone for his terrific all around effort on SLP. Jim's Pick: ARGO

Derek: Life of Pi is the book that has been read the most, so perhaps the voters will go with what is popular, but people didn't like the movie, and it's not gritty enough to actually win, because the Academy loves grit, death, depression, and everything else morose, so it probably won't win. Lincoln is too pedestrian in this category, Argo seems to be the sexy choice, and I wouldn't be surprised if it won, but just to be different I'm going with a different film that seems to be picking up momentum as the awards show draws closer. Derek's Pick: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Original Screenplay

Michael Haneke—AMOUR
Quentin Tarantino—DJANGO UNCHAINED 
John Gatins—FLIGHT
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola—MOONRISE KINGDOM
Mark Boal—ZERO DARK THIRTY

Jim: I would like to see Wes Anderson win because I thought Moonrise Kingdom  was one of the five best movies this year. Mark Boal could also win, since he won the Writer’s Guild. But Tarantino is a master screenwriter. Give credit where credit is due. Jim's Pick: DJANGO UNCHAINED

Derek: Like Jim I think it would be nice to see Wes Anderson win something, and with his name attached to a Coppola it might just happen, but the person that is standing in the way is a little guy named Osama Bin-Laden. Sorry Wes, but Mark Boal is going to steal your oscar.  Derek's Pick: ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams—THE MASTER
Sally Field—LINCOLN
Anne Hathaway—LES MISERABLES 
Helen Hunt—THE SESSIONS
Jacki Weaver—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Jim: Anne Hathaway should win this for Dark Knight Rises.
Jim's Pick:  Anne Hathaway - LES MISERABLES

Derek: For some reason Jim didn't have any commentary on Best Supporting Actress, so I'll have to make due. Helen Hunt is still alive and acting? Who knew? She had her moment in the sun with that Jack Nicholson, Greg Kinnear film from 10 years ago, no chance for her. Sally Field is still alive?  Good for her!  She won't win, her ship sailed to, and we really do like her, just that much anymore. Anne Hathaway gets a lot of juicy roles, surprisingly, and none more so than this gig in Les Miserables. Good chance she wins, but Amy Adams is the new Anne Hathaway (she is playing Lois Lane in the new Superman flick).
Derek's Pick: Amy Adams - THE MASTER

Best Supporting Actor


Alan Arkin—ARGO
Robert DeNiro—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Philip Seymour Hoffman—THE MASTER
Tommy Lee Jones—LINCOLN
Christoph Waltz - DJANGO UNCHAINED

Jim: Some of my favorite actors all in one category! Waltz is outstanding, thus he should win. Jones has won some other awards, which is bizarre because I honestly think he’s the weakest of the five. Nevertheless watch for the upset. Jim's Pick: Christoph Waltz - DJANGO UNCHAINED

Derek: Everyone loves Alan Arkin, literally everyone. Deniro is Deniro. Tommy Lee Jones is fun to listen to and you feel like you know him because he does so many voice overs. Philip Seymour Hoffman is the Chris Carter of acting, all he does is get nominated for Oscars, every year. With all that said, this is the easiest one to pick. Christoph Waltz is so engaging and funny in every role he takes he is going to win. Derek's Pick: Christoph Waltz - DJANGO UNCHAINED

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain—ZERO DARK THIRTY
Jennifer Lawrence—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK 
Emmanuelle Riva—AMOUR
Quavenzhane Wallis—BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Naomi Watts—THE IMPOSSIBLE

Jim: This is always difficult to project, but Jennifer Lawrence is everywhere right now and she’s pretty terrific in SLP. Jim's Pick: Jennifer Lawrence - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.

Derek: Where do I begin? There is a girl named Emmanuelle and a girl named Quavenzhane in this category.  Certainly one of them is going to win. I'm just excited to hear the drunken presenters try to say Quavenzhane on quasi-live TV. Too bad neither will win, because Jennifer Lawrence is this year's little train that could. She is cute and likeable and the new thing in this category, which will get her the trophy. Derek's Pick: Jennifer Lawrence - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Daniel Day-Lewis—LINCOLN 
Hugh Jackman—LES MISERABLES
Joaquin Phoenix—THE MASTER
Denzel Washington—FLIGHT

Jim: Daniel Day-Lewis will become the first person to win three Best Actor trophies. Should have been Tom Hanks back in 2000 for Castaway, but its cool, Day-Lewis is one of the greatest living actors. 
Jim's Pick: Daniel Day Lewis - LINCOLN

Derek: This is a really tough one to pick. On the one hand Daniel Day Lewis is nominated every time he does a movie, so he's got to be a favorite. But he's already a repeat winner. On the other hand Bradley Cooper is really good looking, which totally matters to some of these people who vote. Plus, he hasn't ever won. One thing is for sure, Joaquin Phoenix has no chance, because people were totally annoyed by his whole "fake rapper act" a few years ago.
Derek's Pick: Bradley Cooper—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Director

Michael Haneke—AMOUR
Benh Zeitlin—BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Ang Lee—LIFE OF PI
Steven Spielberg—LINCOLN 
David O. Russell—SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Jim: And the winner is… Ben Affleck—Argo! Oh wait… HE WASN’T EVEN NOMINATED! Neither was Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, nor Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained, so… sure whatever. Either Spielberg or Ang Lee. Both did a great job. Jims pick: Ang Lee - LIFE OF PI

Derek: Tough call. Ben Affleck wasn't nominated because he stole that Oscar way back in the 90's for Good Will Hunting, and people still hold that against him. Seems like this might go to Spielberg, but the dark horse is David O. Russel. My money is on Senor Spielbergo.  Derek's pick - Steven Spielberg—LINCOLN

Best Picture

AMOUR
ARGO 
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY

Jim: Argo has been cleaning up this awards season, and I have no reason to expect it won’t do the same this Sunday. There are a lot of great movies this year, so I’d be pretty happy with just about anything winning. Except

Les Mis

, wasn't a huge fan. I haven’t seen

Amour

or

Beasts 

or either. But anything else. Jim's pick: ARGO

Derek: This is the big enchilada. The oscar that trumps all others. No way Django gets enough votes to win. Too many "n bombs" and people who vote either love or hate Tarantino. Lincoln seems like the safe vote, but Les Mis is creeping around out there looking to sneak in. From what I've read the thing stopping Les Mis from taking this is Russel Crowe. Argo is the movie on this list I most want to see, but then again there is the Affleck curse. It's down to either Silver Linings or Zero Dark Thirty. Zero Dark thirty is my darkhorse pick for this award, but I'm with Jim, I think Argo will win. Derek's pick - ARGO

So there you have it. If you're in an Oscar pool (do things like that exist?) you can take these predictions to the bank. What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments, and be sure to check back during the Oscars to see how we did.

One last thought. The tribute to the James Bond movies will be the highlight!

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